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Abstract. In coastal polynyas, where sea-ice formation and melting occur, it is crucial to have accurate estimates of heat fluxes in order to predict future sea-ice dynamics. The Amundsen Sea Polynya is a coastal polynya in Antarctica that remains poorly observed by in situ observations because of its remoteness. Consequently, we rely on models and reanalysis that are un-validated against observations to study the effect of atmospheric forcing on polynya dynamics. We use austral summer 2022 shipboard data to understand the turbulent heat flux dynamics in the Amundsen Sea Polynya and evaluate our ability to represent these dynamics in ERA5. We show that cold- and dry-air outbreaks from Antarctica enhance air–sea temperature and humidity gradients, triggering episodic heat loss events. The ocean heat loss is larger along the ice-shelf front, and it is also where the ERA5 turbulent heat flux exhibits the largest biases, underestimating the flux by up to 141 W m−2 due to its coarse resolution. By reconstructing a turbulent heat flux product from ERA5 variables using a nearest-neighbor approach to obtain sea surface temperature, we decrease the bias to 107 W m−2. Using a 1D model, we show that the mean co-located ERA5 heat loss underestimation of 28 W m−2 led to an overestimation of the summer evolution of sea surface temperature (heat content) by +0.76 °C (+8.2×107 J) over 35 d. By obtaining the reconstructed flux, the reduced heat loss bias (12 W m−2) reduced the seasonal bias in sea surface temperature (heat content) to −0.17 °C (−3.30 × 107 J) over the 35 d. This study shows that caution should be applied when retrieving ERA5 turbulent flux along the ice shelves and that a reconstructed flux using ERA5 variables shows better accuracy. 

Abstract Thwaites Glacier is one of the fastest-changing ice–ocean systems in Antarctica 1–3 . Much of the ice sheet within the catchment of Thwaites Glacier is grounded below sea level on bedrock that deepens inland 4 , making it susceptible to rapid and irreversible ice loss that could raise the global sea level by more than half a metre 2,3,5 . The rate and extent of ice loss, and whether it proceeds irreversibly, are set by the ocean conditions and basal melting within the grounding-zone region where Thwaites Glacier first goes afloat 3,6 , both of which are largely unknown. Here we show—using observations from a hot-water-drilled access hole—that the grounding zone of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) is characterized by a warm and highly stable water column with temperatures substantially higher than the in situ freezing point. Despite these warm conditions, low current speeds and strong density stratification in the ice–ocean boundary layer actively restrict the vertical mixing of heat towards the ice base 7,8 , resulting in strongly suppressed basal melting. Our results demonstrate that the canonical model of ice-shelf basal melting used to generate sea-level projections cannot reproduce observed melt rates beneath this critically important glacier, and that rapid and possibly unstable grounding-line retreat may be associated with relatively modest basal melt rates.